Yellow Light

Fed is cutting back so the markets are wild.  I recommend sitting on the side for swing accounts until after the new year.  We were taken out out with a small profit after the last wild move in the market.  We need to see what the market is going to do and trade starting the new year.  By that time the market will have a plan and a direction.

I will be out of the office until Jan 2.  Have a great holiday.

Green Light

Move your stop to entry on your SPY.  Don't forget to take profits at 177.13 or if it closed above the PP for that day.  Take half off and let the rest run.

Daily chart we broke the neck line and looks like we may continue to go lower.  But for those of you who missed the short we may get at Half Back Short at the 179.72ish in the next few days.  The large player that did not get short want to get short and may push the market up to get the fill.  So get ready for that.

Option players move your stop 6.67 and take half off when you get 90% of your entry, then let the rest run Long on the Put short.

I will be out of the office until Tuesday.

Green Light!

Got a short today at 180.56 with a stop at 181.07.  We broke our extensions long so I think we will have some down side here.  We got a lower low off of yesterdays low.  A little strange but still a valid short. Stick to the rules. Trade what you see not what you think.  The large traders are hedging there portfolios for the Feb meeting next week.  If Fed stops tapering the volume will come back into the market.  If the Feb keep tapering then we will be in a grind up.

Option traders we got a March put Long, at 6.29 with a stop at 5.87

Yellow Light

No trade Monday.  Two day above the PP but never got a pull back in the main trading hours with conviction to go long.

No trade Tuesday.  We closed below the PP.

Still waiting for a stet up.  Its going to be slow till the end of the year.  Fed Meeting next week and everyone is hedging their positions in case the fed slows the taper.

15 Min on Monday looking like a double top so be careful of a pull back.

Yellow Light!

Move your option stop to entry!  Taken out of the SPY with a small profit on this reactionary trade off good news on jobs claims. Could be a trap be careful today!  Sit on the side if your new!

Green Light lower!

We closed below the PP today and are looking to go lower.  Move your stop to 180.07 and lock in a small profit.

We took a 179 Jan Put call long to day at 2.65 with a stop at 2.42.

Green light lower.

Still in a short trade.  Move your stop to 180.83.  Market is in a battle over trend.  Keep moving stops down.  We closed below the PP on the day so we are still looking for a lower low tomorrow.  We hit the target of 178.56 today.  Should have taken half off your trade for a + 1.64.  We will let the second half ride.

Green light!

Short at 180.20 with stop at 180.93.

We did close below the PP today.  We will have to confirm lower tomorrow to go lower.  For you more conservative traders you can take the bounce lower off the PP.

Yellow light!

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving.

No Trades today.  We closed below the PP on the day and now we must wait until we get a back test of the Primary Pivot tomorrow before we can go short.  This helps us keep out of the chop and giving back money to the markets.

Yellow Light

No trade today

On the 15 min we closed below the PP on the day.  We will need two day blow the PP now to go short.  But we will have to wait until Monday.  Wednesday and Friday we will not trade because the markets will have no volume.  So we will see you Monday.

Yellow Light!

We are getting our bounce off the PP, 5 minutes before the close.  I did not take the long with just 5 minutes left.  With low volume I"m going to be very careful this week in getting into the market.

No Trade today!

Yellow Light

Today we got our second close above the PP so on Monday we can go long in the SPY off a bounce off the PP.

No trade today.

Yellow Light

Today were taken out with a small loss on the SPY.  -.42 on this trade.  We closed above the Primary Pivot today and now we must wait until we get two days above the PP before taking a new trade.  This market is a traders market until after the new year.  I think with the Fed backing the market with bond buying all the large traders don't want to risk their 20% gain for the year.  This may lead to an unstable market until after the new year.  We will still follow our rules and try to find a direction.

Yellow Light!

Today we did finally break the 61.8 long in the SPY, same as the other indices yesterday.

We got our pull back in the SPY but we did not get taken out, with our stop at 179.97.  Don't move stop for tomorrow.  We will have a retracement back to (or around) 179.24, this is the 50% retracement for short.  So if you missed Yesterday shorts you will have a second chance tomorrow.  You may also buy your options if we get a bounce lower with the indicators supporting the move lower.  If you get in short tomorrow place your stop at 179.63.  That is above the 61.8 half back short.  If it breaks, then we may go higher.

Looking for a lower target at the 175.74

Options: Look for a put around 179, (at the money put) with your stop above the high for today.

Yellow Light - WARNING!!!

Market is looking strange.  Be Careful.  Best to sit on the side for now.  I'm thinking a topping pattern with a major plunge lower.  Big bars on the 15 minute that last few days.  No one is buying long but we can't seem to go short.  This is what you see when traders bail on the market all at the same time.

Trade what you see NOT what you think.  Sit on the side for now!

You may want to come back after Thanksgiving!

Yellow Light

Move stop to 179.97

Yellow Light!

We got our bounce short and we're taken at 179.55 short.  We did not break the 61.8% on the daily SPY to the  up side.  But we did on the other indices.  I'm am not going to take any option trades at this time because there is still a fight over trend.  Tomorrow I will think about moving my stop down, just above today's high, if we get a lower low over night and it looks like it will continue,

Yellow Light Warning!

Sorry for not posting at 3 pm.  My internet was out.

We got taken out of the SPY at 179.56.  This is a flat trade.  The trend may have changed.  Tomorrow look for the back test of the PP and take it short if we bread the 178.62 line first.  Or for a more conservative traders you will have to wait until Wednesday after you get two days closing below the PP then take that short.  Warring we are still in an up trend.  Only trade is short for tomorrow if we get the back test after the bread of the 178.62.

Trend is still up unless we break  the 178.62 on the daily to the down side.  That is the line in the sand.  Tomorrow, we still have a target above us at 181.39.  Trend is still up.  Until we break the 178.62.

Options were also taken out with a loss of .05.  Manage your losses and let your winners run.

Green Light Long

Today we had our bounce.  It did not make the PP but it did bounce on the Close of yesterday.  Long at 179.56 with at stop at 179.20

Daily we still have a target at 181.39

Options traders we went in at 3.46 with a stop at 3.30.  Tomorrow we will give it a little room to move.

Green for tomorrow IF!

Two day in a row above the PP.  Tomorrow we should get a pull back to the PP and we can take that long.  It must bounce and indicators must confirm.  The PP will be around the 178.84, with a target of 181.39.  181.39 we will take half off and let the rest run.  Options traders we will take the Jan 14 Calls at 178 strike, or at in the money when it bounces.

Yellow Light! Warning

Back in the office today,  We did have two days in a row to the up side (Friday and Monday).  But Monday was a low volume day and Veterans day.  Thanks you Veterans!  Then Wednesday we closed below the PP.  On the 15 min chart look for a 50% retracement to the 177.48 or the PP at 177.86 and look for a bounce up.  If we break the 177.12 then we may go lower.

Yellow Light is out because we hit the profit target yesterday.  So expect a pull back.  If we close above the PP on the day, then go long on the 3rd day bounce higher for you conservative traders.  We are still in an uptrend on the daily until we break the 169.49.

Yellow Light Warning

No trades today.  We will close above the pp for today.  We are just bouncing back and forth this week.  One of the worst week in the market this year.  Our rules are working great.  Keeping us out of a sideways market.

Broke the 61.8 on the 15, so we are just going sideways.

This is what a bounce looks like on the 1600 Tick chart.  The bounce lower failed because the bottom indicator kept us from going short.  The yellow line never went below the 80 (Red Horizontal Line).  Yet the Blue/Red line went to the bottom and bounced up and went through the PP for the day.  Then it back tested that line again 3 times and moved higher.  If we had had two day close above the PP we could have taken this higher. Stop would be placed at 175.73 for the day.

Monday is a holiday and Tuesday and Wednesday I will be out of the office.  See you Thursday.

Yellow Light - Warning

No trades today, we closed below the PP for the day and did not get a bounce.  Tomorrow we will look for a back test of the PP and take it short if we get a bounce lower.  Conservative pay for tomorrow is to wait until Tuesday (Monday market is closed) for the 3ed day lower,  assuming the market closes below the PP on Friday.

On the daily we broke the Fib Extension 61.8%  at (blue oval).  Trend may change to a 50% retracement lower at 171.09.  Wait for the back test at the PP and take it lower.

We have a nice pop this morning due to Europe lowing their interest rate.  Today you can take a long in the SPY if we get a bounce off the PP.  We do have a 50% Fib at 177.33 and a 61.8% Fib at 177.18.  Look for a bounce off of them as well.  Must confirm support before taking a long.

Yellow Light - Warning!

We moved up in the morning and went sideways all day.  Tomorrow if we get a higher high and a back test of the PP (green line) and it moves up off the PP, you many take that long.  For you more conservative players you can wait until Friday with the same entry plan.  If the market closes below the PP in the afternoon then we will have to wait for another day before going short is the market.

NO trades today!

We still have the same target of 178.43 to the up side.  We just need some momentum to get us there.

15 Min is just going sideways with slight trend up, over the last few days.

Yellow Light Warning

Yesterday we closed below the Primary Pivot (green line) on the SPY.  Market direction is not clear.  No trading today.  We must wait for a proven direction.

ES is above the PP in the early morning.  This is a clue we may go higher today on the SPY as well.  Wait for close of the market today on the SPY and if we are above the PP we will go long tomorrow on a pull back and bounce on the PP.

Red Light today.  We were taken out today on the SPY with a full loss of .42 and on the Option full stop of .16.  Second time this year we had a full stop taken out.

Rules kick in when we get 2 stop in a row.  This indicates a battle over trend.

Stops: When you have 2 losses a row you must not trade until you get confirmed momentum change long or short.  Conformation meaning: 2 days in a row closing above or below the Primary Pivot (PP). Take the 3^rd days bounce off the PP, and trade in that momentums direction.

For the rest of the day we can not trade.  We have to wait until tomorrow. We need to wait for the trend to show us the way.  This is a sideways market.  If we play this market we will get chopped up and loos money.   

For tomorrow,  If we close below the PP today then look for a back test of the PP tomorrow and go short.  If we close above the PP, today, then we can't trade long until Thursday with a back test of the PP.  Go long as long as we get two day above the PP in a row.  We need two days close in one directions in order to take a trade in that directions.

Yellow Light!  Warning for the day.  We were closed out of our SPY short with a small profit of .03. Our Put Option was taken as well with a loss of .07.  The market is in a battle over the trend.  You have two options (if you did not get in long see bottom of the blog):

Option 1. Wait until there is a Green Light and a directions in the market the take the pull back bounce of the PP in that direction, long or short.
Option 2. Go long as I did today.  Long in the SPY at 176.29. Stop at 175.87.  Option long in a Dec. 76 Call Option in at 3.81 with a stop at 3.65

15 Min

Daily, we did bounce off the support and it looks like we have a upper target of 178.43

Options traders, Reversed and bought a Dec. 76 Call Option in at 3.81 with a stop at 3.65

For those of you who missed the long and want to get into the market you may do so tomorrow.  Wait for the market to come back to the Primary Pivot and go long.  Wait for a bounce with a higher bar close of the previous bar on the 15 min.  Then go long.  Below is and example. 

The market tried to move higher today several times.  But it failed so far.  We did close above the PP for the day.  So warning for Monday.  Game plan for Monday,  Look for a back test of the PP on Monday, if you get a bounce exit your short and go long.  Meanwhile  move your stop to 176.77 to lock in a small profit.  We will manage our losses and let the winners run.

On the daily, we still have resentence at the 175.56.  We did not break the 175.09 that is the 68.1 % retracement on the extension   If we break that them we will go lower.  If we bounce we will make a new high with a new profit target at 178.43.

Options traders: Move your stops to 4.11.  If we get taken out on Monday it will be a small loss.  If the market continues down we will keep trailing our stops.  If the markets bounces on Monday we will reverse, close our Put and buy a Call long.  Same rules as above. 

SPY is still in shorts.  We did close below the PP for the day.  We did test the long but it sold off.  We have a fight over the trend.  Move  your stop to 177.07.  Friday is Mutual Fund Friday so that tells me money will be coming into the market with market orders.  We may have a pop on Friday.  Keep an eye on the market so your stops don't get jumped.  Check the ES in the morning for the warning signs. 

If we get some room to the down side we will be able to move our stop to break even tomorrow night.  We will let that run for Mutual Fund Friday and hope we stay in.  We do have two resistance points (support) you need to be aware of, 175.56 and the 171.02.  The idea is to ride this short to the 171.02. When we hit the target, take the back test of the 171.02 for a long.  

Options traders:  We are still in a put option long.  Keep your stop at 3.91.  At the end of day Friday we should be able to move our stop to breakeven or a small profit.