Yellow light

We broke the lower trend line and we are still in the HB fib.  The major trend is up but the mid tend is down.  Market is not shure what to do.  Sometimes you need to sit and wait for signs.  Futures is flat on the morning waiting for info at 8:30.  This will be a hint on the day of direction.

Yellow Light

This will be a big day.  If we stay or if we go.  We are at  some large resistance points right here.  If we go down it will be a bumpy ride.  Resistance points at 206 trend line, 205 fib, 203 fib, 202 gap fills, 202 at the 5% retracement, 200 at the 200 EMA and finally 198 is the final resistance before a major drop.  Hold on to your pants.

Futures are down 13 pts today at 7:30 am EST,  Not good for going up on the day.

I would not trade this if you are in long term stocks.  Hedge your down side with SPX and SPY options to the down side to protect your longs.  If you are a day trader or a swing trader you can play the turns.

Red Light

We broke the HBL extension and now we are headed down.  We do have a lower trend line to keep an eye on.  We also have a HBL that may hold.  There is also a lower low from this last push up.  Look for a bounce at each spot to enter longs.

Yellow Light

We may get a bounce today.  If it holds that will turn into a green light.  Futures are flat but pressure is building to the up side.  How far it will go who knows.

Yellow Light

We are bouncing off the HBL from the bar from 5 days ago.  Not a standard fib retracement.  We do have the bar from 4 days ago bouncing off the same spot.  Tomorrow morning ES futures will give us a hint on the market direction.

Yellow Light

Today we had a HBS on the 30 minute chart.  This is not a good sign for moving up.  At least for the next few days.

We also broke a key support line.

Green Light

Going up.  This morning futures are up 5 pts. If you can get a Vertical at 90-95 at a good price with expiration on Friday it will be some good cash in hand.  And or get a long call in SPX or SPY today at the HBL should work well if you missed the fist entry last Thursday.

Green Light

We had a pull back yesterdays to the HBL of the previous day.  Futures are up by 11 Pts and rising this morning.  Sell verticals below the last pull back for this week expiration and make some quick cash.

Green Light

We broke the HBS and the target is 2154.63.

Fed did not change rates so we have cheap money still.  Fed is still backing the market.

Yellow Light

We are stuck between HBL and HDS.  Fed rate comes out at 2 pm today.

Volume is low for the day and remain low until 2 pm today.

This is a 30 min chart.  We do have a divergence in the Ego to the down side.

240 chart still show up.  The Sto show a pull back and then a move higher.

Yellow Light

FOMC statement tomorrow at 2 pm.  The market is expecting word change not a hike in interest rates.  When Fed raises interest rates the US government will have to pay more on its debt. The word on the street is the Fed will raise rates this year some time.  Perhaps later in the year.

Markets will be flat until 2 pm tomorrow.  It is also quad witching the rest of the week.  Lot going on tomorrow.

We are in a rising wedge that tend to fail to the down side after 75% of the wedge is filled and complete.

We do have an upper target of 215.63 if it will get there.  That would be a good place for the wedge to fail to the down side.

Yellow Light

The ES Futures are down 8 points this morning. The market will be a little slow this morning because of the Fed speaking at 10 am EST.  After that the markets will start moving again.

As you can see o this 30 min chart, we are stuck between the HNL at 206.04 and HNS at 209.25.  We need a break either way to enter trades with the trend.

Yellow Light

We are in a wedge.  We have not broken the 61.8 HBS yet.  If we break it will go to the upper wedge line. Check the ES futures tomorrow morning for a clue.

Yellow Light

We are between a HBL and a HBS.  So keep an eye on the HBS if it breaks the 61.8 we will go higher.  It also may bounce down.  That will be your clue on the direction.

Yellow Light

We broke the Fib extension to the down side.  So today we go up.  Be careful.

Looking to enter AVB today.

Fed speaks this week so don't expect to much until Wednesday.   This is also option ex this week.

We need to break the half back short before we bet a green light long.

Red Light

Be careful of this bounce.  It must break the 207.46 befor its valid.  This is looking weak.  Futures are looking flat on the morning.

Red Light

The sell off hit the 205.6 today.  I'm looking for a possible bounce between here and 203.36.  For the bounce we are looking for a HBL in a micro and the confirmation will be a higher high for the day.

Red Light

We did get a bounce at the 207 but the over night futures are down 18 pts on the ES.  So we now have a red light for day and swing trading.  Long term if we break the 197 then you need to exit your long term stock on a case by case basis. Keep the winners and dump the losers.  Free up some money for the next bounce.

Yellow Light

Market broke the up short term trend.  Look for a bounce at 208 and at 205 or at 197.  We never broke the half back short at 211 so the momentum is down for now.

Green Light

Still going sideways.  Never closed below the 61.8 again.  This is called unwinding.  Tomorrow will be slow.  Until we get unemployment data.  It should be going up if predictions are correct. Everyone is talking correction.  Trade what you see not what you hear or think.  Don't get caught up in rumors and speculation. Trade it when it happens not before.

Green Light

We broke the Fib long but did not go lower.  We closed with in the 50% and 61.8 in a Doji.  Indecision on the day.  Sellers try to come in and failed, buyer came to take it up and failed. Wait for tomorrow morning futures for a clue on direction on Thursday.

Green Light

We had some unwinding today that lead to moving sideways.  We hit the 61.8 and bounced off to the up side.

Green Light

Moving on up.  First target is 213.12, second target is 214.51 and the last target is 220.33.  We will get some hesitation at the high of 213.12.  We may even go sideways for a few days. The indicators may fall and pull back to reset for a long trade.

Green Light

We broke the HBS today on the Fibs and everyone jumped in.  It is looking weak the the volume so choose carefully.

Looking at stocks for entries, ALGN, BMY, ILMN on a bounce.

Green Light

We hit the 50% half back short.  Keep an eye on this for next week.

Green Light

Getting a hesitation today.  But we are still a green light.  Look for a Fib bounce at 210.49 or second shot at 208.17. OBV is flat, so don't expect a lot today unless we get news.

No stock picks today. Waiting for the market to turn up on the short term.

Green Light

We could not break the half back short on the 15 min today.  Heads up for possibly lower.

Green Light

The bar on 12-18 is a real trade so we must consider using it in our Fibs.  Some times you get fake bars from data corruptions.  Not this one.  So you can see we did get a 50% retracement close to the 197.46 and now we are moving higher.  Look for a double top at 213.98 and wait and see what the market will do.  It can reverse and go down, sideways or break back test and move higher.

Watch list today: MELI, MWE.  Looking for a pull back for an entry.

Green Light

Once we hit or break the 213 we will look for a pull back to the 50% Fib, around 205.41 (to be determined when we get the pull back) with a target of 220.33 on the SPY.  I will get long at that time.

Green Light

I'm back in the office.  Looks like we had a nice grind up last week.  Looks like it will continue this week.  It will take me a few days to get a feel for the markets sentiment. If you missed the up you can wait for the pull back to the 207.68 before entering.  Today I will be looking for longs in JWN and LPNT.

Green light

I will be out of the office next week.  So be careful of this market.  This market is weak and looking in trouble.  We have been going sideways for months now.  Don't expect it to change over the next week.  Keep your stops close and take profits fast.  If we drop below the trend line we will move to a red light.  If the gap fills, look for a bounce or a retest to get in long.  If it breaks the bottom of the gap look for a short to the major support line (blue box) and the 200 EMA (red line). Look for a bounce their.  If that breaks, we will go down, possibly very fast.

Green Light

Today you had a second chance to get in today on the pull back.  The EU has put off the decision to deal with Greece for now. So we go up.  Volume is a little low, so keep your stop close.  One day of bad news and the market will drop like a rock.

Green Light

This is the official back test of the trend line.  I'm getting a little longer today.  75% of all stocks reported and 85% met or beat earnings.  Good news, although the bar has dropped for earnings.

ES Futures are up 15 pts this morning.  Power coming into the market.

Green Light

Bad news in EU today.  Pushing market down.  I'm light in the market.  Not sure I trust this up move very much.  Selling a lot to option premium this week.  Its a defencive move with fast income.

Look for a possible pull back to the 50% at 202  Just something to watch.

GREEN LIGHT!

We back tested the line so we are green to go.  Never filled the full gap, we just did a half gap fill.

Market is still looking a little weak so go in slowly.

Yellow Light

We poked our head past the line and ran the other way.  This is a tombstone doji.  A negative bar.  No one want to jump into the market.  So if you're smart you're sitting on the side or just holding on to what you have.

These are the hardest markets to trade.  We may head down tomorrow to fill the gap.

Yellow light

Not much conviction in the markets today.  We popped out above the line twice today and it did not take off to the up side.  We did, however, pull back to the 50%.  I thought it would take off from their but didn't.  Weak market.  No one want to buy this market here.  They are just holding on to what they have.  Time will give us a clue.

Yellow Light

We went up and tagged the upper trend line this morning.  I'm just sitting and waiting for the market.  Market is resting today from the last 2 days of moving up.  Still not sure the direction. Short term momentum is up but we are official sideways for now.  Did get some Ford today "F" with a stop below the gap.

Ford

Yellow Light

We broke the 61.8 with a trend line just over head.  I will go long if we a break the trend line, back test the trend line and move higher to make a higher high.  We did fill the gap and that was the time to take a risky trade for a long.  I tried but did not get filled.  Bummer!

We may also have chance to get long at the 203.48 again tomorrow.  All the big boys and girls that missed this move will want a pull back so they can get in as well, at the green arrow.  But at that time you will have to make a decision to go long or not if we do not break the upper trend line.  We may go sideways.

Yellow Light

We do have a gap to fill sometime.

Yellow Light

We broke the minor 61.8 but the All The Way Half Way Back (ATWHWB) is the stronger residence. Still waiting to enter.  I am playing futures short term for some cash.  Market had good news today but this may be short lived. If we break the 204.70 I will start to go long again.  We are still in a large sideways market.  We could go to the top of the range but not until we break the ATWHWB.

Yellow Light

We got a pop over night.  We will have to see if it will hold for the day.

Yellow Light

Well we hit the 50% by the end of the day.  This may be a reversal to the up side.  Did not take a short because it was the end of the day and the 60 minute is looking to the up side.  Still sitting and waiting.  It may take a few more days to work itself out.  If we get above the 203.31, I will start looking long but working my self in slowly.

Here is the 60 minute. It popped at the end of the day and everything is over solded. We have a divergence on the Ergo and Sto to the up side.  OBV is moving up as well.

Yellow Light

We are getting a bounce off the bottom at 197.81.  Everything is looking weak.  I will take a short at the 50% (202.03) if the market still looks weak when it hits it.  I will wait for the turn before I go short. It may just blast past it and keep going,  This will be a riskier trade. We are still going sideways and not breaking a new higher high or a new lower low.  Most indicators are showing down for now.