Yellow Light - Warning

No trades today, we closed below the PP for the day and did not get a bounce.  Tomorrow we will look for a back test of the PP and take it short if we get a bounce lower.  Conservative pay for tomorrow is to wait until Tuesday (Monday market is closed) for the 3ed day lower,  assuming the market closes below the PP on Friday.

On the daily we broke the Fib Extension 61.8%  at (blue oval).  Trend may change to a 50% retracement lower at 171.09.  Wait for the back test at the PP and take it lower.

We have a nice pop this morning due to Europe lowing their interest rate.  Today you can take a long in the SPY if we get a bounce off the PP.  We do have a 50% Fib at 177.33 and a 61.8% Fib at 177.18.  Look for a bounce off of them as well.  Must confirm support before taking a long.

Yellow Light - Warning!

We moved up in the morning and went sideways all day.  Tomorrow if we get a higher high and a back test of the PP (green line) and it moves up off the PP, you many take that long.  For you more conservative players you can wait until Friday with the same entry plan.  If the market closes below the PP in the afternoon then we will have to wait for another day before going short is the market.

NO trades today!

We still have the same target of 178.43 to the up side.  We just need some momentum to get us there.

15 Min is just going sideways with slight trend up, over the last few days.

Yellow Light Warning

Yesterday we closed below the Primary Pivot (green line) on the SPY.  Market direction is not clear.  No trading today.  We must wait for a proven direction.

ES is above the PP in the early morning.  This is a clue we may go higher today on the SPY as well.  Wait for close of the market today on the SPY and if we are above the PP we will go long tomorrow on a pull back and bounce on the PP.

Red Light today.  We were taken out today on the SPY with a full loss of .42 and on the Option full stop of .16.  Second time this year we had a full stop taken out.

Rules kick in when we get 2 stop in a row.  This indicates a battle over trend.

Stops: When you have 2 losses a row you must not trade until you get confirmed momentum change long or short.  Conformation meaning: 2 days in a row closing above or below the Primary Pivot (PP). Take the 3^rd days bounce off the PP, and trade in that momentums direction.

For the rest of the day we can not trade.  We have to wait until tomorrow. We need to wait for the trend to show us the way.  This is a sideways market.  If we play this market we will get chopped up and loos money.   

For tomorrow,  If we close below the PP today then look for a back test of the PP tomorrow and go short.  If we close above the PP, today, then we can't trade long until Thursday with a back test of the PP.  Go long as long as we get two day above the PP in a row.  We need two days close in one directions in order to take a trade in that directions.

Yellow Light!  Warning for the day.  We were closed out of our SPY short with a small profit of .03. Our Put Option was taken as well with a loss of .07.  The market is in a battle over the trend.  You have two options (if you did not get in long see bottom of the blog):

Option 1. Wait until there is a Green Light and a directions in the market the take the pull back bounce of the PP in that direction, long or short.
Option 2. Go long as I did today.  Long in the SPY at 176.29. Stop at 175.87.  Option long in a Dec. 76 Call Option in at 3.81 with a stop at 3.65

15 Min

Daily, we did bounce off the support and it looks like we have a upper target of 178.43

Options traders, Reversed and bought a Dec. 76 Call Option in at 3.81 with a stop at 3.65

For those of you who missed the long and want to get into the market you may do so tomorrow.  Wait for the market to come back to the Primary Pivot and go long.  Wait for a bounce with a higher bar close of the previous bar on the 15 min.  Then go long.  Below is and example. 

The market tried to move higher today several times.  But it failed so far.  We did close above the PP for the day.  So warning for Monday.  Game plan for Monday,  Look for a back test of the PP on Monday, if you get a bounce exit your short and go long.  Meanwhile  move your stop to 176.77 to lock in a small profit.  We will manage our losses and let the winners run.

On the daily, we still have resentence at the 175.56.  We did not break the 175.09 that is the 68.1 % retracement on the extension   If we break that them we will go lower.  If we bounce we will make a new high with a new profit target at 178.43.

Options traders: Move your stops to 4.11.  If we get taken out on Monday it will be a small loss.  If the market continues down we will keep trailing our stops.  If the markets bounces on Monday we will reverse, close our Put and buy a Call long.  Same rules as above.